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Byline: Gideon Rose (Rose is managing editor of Foreign Affairs.)
There is an odd disconnect these days between popular perceptions of international relations and the actual state of affairs. Americans increasingly see the world as a source of threats, worrying about terrorism, nuclear proliferation or immigration. Non-Americans, meanwhile, see the United States itself as a dangerous rogue bent on imperial adventures.
Neither view is quite right: the United States profits far more from its engagement with the world than its citizens recognize. And it's far more benevolent than outsiders think. Aside from managing the endgame in Iraq, therefore, the greatest foreign-policy challenge facing President George W. Bush in the next 18 months--and the toughest job his successor will confront--will be how to convince everyone else that things really aren't that bad, and that desperate measures to change course would be unnecessary and unwise.
"Naive claptrap," many will respond. Don't I understand that radical Islamist terrorism is a grave and continuing danger, both to the stability of the Middle East and to the security of the West itself? That weapons of mass destruction are about to fall into the hands of angry lunatics in Iran and elsewhere? That authoritarianism is making a comeback, the globe is overheating and China will soon dominate everything? And shouldn't I acknowledge, many will add, that a lot of these problems are the direct result of America's greed, brutality and recklessness?
Sure--to some extent. The War on Terror will be with us in some form for generations, until the Islamic world makes a full transition to modernity. Iran may well get nukes, complicating regional security. The turmoil in Iraq is likely to get worse before it gets better. And yes, the Bush administration's bungling is partly to blame.
But the true naifs are those who fail to put such troubles in perspective. War has been a constant throughout history, consuming millions of lives and untold wealth. Tyranny and poverty have also been the norm. What is notable today is not that such scourges still exist--but that so much of humanity has finally begun to escape from them.
The first half of the 20th century was marked by two global cataclysms; the second, by a tense superpower standoff. In retrospect, however, the most important aspect of the cold war was that it largely remained cold till the end, when the Soviet collapse removed any ...