Governing Gaza: Hamas's Dilemma.(Gaza Strip)

Byline: Martin Indyk

Now that Hamas has taken complete control of Gaza by force, what will result? Mogadishu on the Mediterranean? Or will the sole responsibility for governing 1.5 million Palestinians force Hamas to moderate its militancy?

The most prominent exponent of the theory behind the latter hope--i.e., the notion that governing forces radicals to become more reasonable--is, ironically, none other than George W. Bush. It was that conviction that led Bush to insist in December 2005 that the Palestinians go ahead with elections, though Palestinians and Israelis warned him Hamas could win. Bush argued that it would be good for Hamas to govern and be held accountable to the people.

But things haven't worked the way Bush expected. Elections in the Palestinian territories did not produce transparent and accountable government. Hamas never followed the democratic rules of the game; instead, when power sharing became tiresome, its militia launched a putsch.

As a result, the West Bank is now controlled by Fatah and Gaza by Hamas. What Hamas does next, however, needn't be determined by its bloody past. The group wanted sole control of Gaza; now it has it, and must show the people what it will do. The whole region will be watching, since this is the first time a Muslim Brotherhood party--after years of opposition, especially to Cairo--has taken control of an Arab territory.

Hamas's first challenge will be to establish order after two years of anarchy. But bringing to heel Gaza's tribes, warlords, smugglers and jihadists won't be easy. Already, the Qaeda offshoot that is holding a kidnapped BBC journalist has defied Hamas's demand to release him. Palestine Islamic Jihad takes its orders from Tehran. And some of the Fatah fighters who remained in Gaza when their leaders fled may try to destabilize the territory.

An even bigger challenge will be managing Gaza's relations with Egypt and Israel. Gaza has no port or airport. People entering or leaving the territory have to cross the Egyptian border. Electricity, fuel and water come from Israel, as do most goods that keep Gaza on life support. Hamas must decide what kind of relationship it wants with its powerful neighbors. Israel does not want to strangle Gaza's residents, but it will not tolerate Qassam rocket fire from the territory. Hamas must therefore somehow resolve the tension between its commitment to destroy ...