Memo to GOP: get a grip; Reagan was right for his time, and someone else must be right for our own time.(2008)(Ronald Reagan)

ALL the stars are lined up for a horrible Republican defeat in 2008.

You know the numbers as well as I. From almost the moment George W. Bush returned to office in 2005, a majority of Americans surveyed have said the country was on the "wrong track." (The latest numbers put "wrong track" at over 70 percent.) A majority of Americans express a favorable view of the Democratic party. A majority of Americans express an unfavorable view of the Republican party. On the question "Which party cares more about people like you?" Democrats currently hold a two-to-one lead over the GOP. Ditto on the question "Which party can be described as the party of change?" Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president.

I could continue, but you get the idea. The Republican party is a very, very threatened organization. And it's important to realize that while Iraq heads the list of Republican troubles, the list extends well beyond Iraq. Standards of living have stagnated under Bush: The median American worker earns no more today than he did in 2001. Health-insurance and energy costs have doubled since 2001.

Corruption gnaws at the image of the GOP. Historically, honesty in government has been a GOP issue: Democrats still pay the price for Tammany Hall. But when asked today which party has more corrupt politicians, Republicans or Democrats, Americans answer "Republicans" by a two-to-one landslide. Likewise, since Jimmy Carter, Republicans have usually been perceived as the more competent party; today, Democrats are seen as better managers by a five-to-three margin.

Democrats go into this election cycle more unified and energized than do the Republicans. In the first quarter of 2007, the three top Democratic candidates for president raised a combined total of $65 million; the three top Republicans, $48 million. The websites of the Democratic presidential candidates attract more traffic than the websites of the Republicans. And then of course comes this deeply demoralizing self-inflicted immigration debacle.

Result: While 60 percent of Democratic primary voters pronounce themselves satisfied with their presidential choices, only 35 percent of Republicans say the same. This unhappiness is the opportunity that is luring Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich into the race. And that's great: the more the merrier. But there is a risk in this unhappiness. Unhappy parties can succumb to nostalgia for their great leaders of the past. The Democrats lost election after election looking first for the next Franklin Roosevelt, then for the next John F. Kennedy. Republicans in these frustrating days feel the tug of Reagan nostalgia.

We feel: If only we had another Reagan! If only we could find a consistent small-government tax-cutter who is also sincerely and consistently socially conservative! If only we could find a candidate who exudes both strength and good cheer, traditionalism and optimism!