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Byline: Barton Biggs (Biggs, the famed Wall Street strategist, is now a hedge-fund manager at Traxis Partners.)
Equity markets around the world are flirting coquettishly with new highs, but this old head and a lot of younger, hairier skulls are puzzled by the sentiment of the aggressive big money. We all pay a lot of attention to this sentiment, because as contrarians, we believe that a strong consensus of investors is almost always wrong.
That warm sense of everything going well is usually the body temperature at the center of the herd. Invariably, the majority is wildly bullish and fully invested at the top of a market and are gloomy and have a lot of cash and short positions at the bottom.
The trouble with being a contrarian ...
Source: HighBeam Research, The Contra Contrarian.