12 Ideas for the Planet.(Cover story)

JOHN R. MCNEILL Former Cinco Hermanos Chair Of Environmental and International Affairs, Georgetown University

The next 50 years are make-or-break

The way I look at it, global climate change and the environment have been important for quite some time. I hope they stay here in the forefront of the U.S. consciousness, but they may not. Something could relegate those issues to the margins tomorrow. Since 9/11, the situation has been fairly simple and straightforward: issues of terrorism and security have seized the public imagination to the extent that everything else has become a lesser priority. Anything that has a longer time horizon, like climate change, with a slower fuse to anticipate catastrophe, has to wait.

But clearly the salience of environmentalism has returned rather suddenly in the last 12 months, which is interesting because there hasn't been a real galvanizing event. Katrina for some people seems like a thing to come with a warmer world, but by no means is that clearly the case. But we certainly now have a shifting landscape in which almost nobody clings to the position that the science of climate change is bogus. Rather, the opposition has begun to say, "OK, it's happening, but there's nothing we can do about it." My guess is that this position will further weaken, because I think the gradual development of new technologies will show it is possible to make the leap. I am very confident that there will eventually be a post-fossil-fuel economy and that technology will extricate us from this awkward position we now find ourselves in. The way I see it, the next 50 years will be the eye of the needle through which we need to pass. That will not be easy.

ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD, PH.D. Commissioner, California Energy Commission