52-PICKUP; Where will the Formula One cards fall this year?(Motorsports)

Byline: NIGEL ROEBUCK

On paper, 2007 should be the most closely fought Formula One season in a decade. For one thing, Michael Schumacher has wandered off into retirement; for another, the two biggest stars-Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen-are with new teams. Perhaps just as important, all 22 drivers will use the same tires.

Schumacher's retirement has taken a colossus from motor racing. Not only was he the most successful F1 driver in history-with seven world championships and 91 Grand Prix victories-but his mere presence has dominated the sport since Ayrton Senna's death at Imola in 1994.

When the greatest departs, there is almost always a "down'' period before the heir becomes apparent. In the last two seasons, though, Alonso increasingly laid claim to being Schumacher's equal, and in 2006, many held the view that, at only 25, he was now the best.

Alonso is quite pleased that he won his two world championships when Schumacher was still active, and now, with Schumacher gone, he might appear an overwhelming favorite to take the title again. But it's not that simple.

Back in the fall of 2005, even as he won his first championship for Renault, Alonso murmured to Ron Dennis that he would be interested in a move to McLaren-Mercedes. Why? He was uncertain of Renault's long-term F1 commitment. He also felt a little underpaid.

Dennis went for it and struck a deal for 2007, when Alonso's Renault contract would be up. The move stunned everyone in F1-not least McLaren's two existing drivers, Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya. In fact, Dennis suspected-correctly-that Raikkonen already had committed to Ferrari for '07, and the situation was further eased when Montoya decided to head for NASCAR in July '06.