ChAvez Lives Castro's Dream.

Byline: Jorge Castaneda (Castaneda is Global Distinguished Professor of Politics and Latin American Studies at New York University.)

Fidel Castro used his reappearance on TV late last month to show that his health has finally improved. But he also carefully staged the event to send a serious message to the world. He could have had himself filmed alongside his family or his brother and successor, Raul. Instead, he picked Hugo ChAvez: a sign that Fidel possibly views the Venezuelan, and not Raul, as his true heir.

ChAvez was thrilled: he wants nothing better than to inherit Castro's radical mantle, and hopes to overshadow Raul. Behind this dance, however, lies a more worrisome story. The alliance between Cuba and Venezuela is finally taking shape and becoming a significant force in Latin America. Taking advantage of the failure of Brazil, Mexico, Spain or the United States to show leadership in the region, the Caribbean caudillos have begun to extend their influence to Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua.

Thanks to ChAvez, Fidel is finally realizing a 40-year-old dream. Ever since the early 1960s, Cuba has sought to extend its tropical socialism throughout Latin America. Despite some near misses the model never really took hold; Cuba lacked the economic and military resources to make it happen, nor was the Soviet Union willing to provide sufficient support.

Today, however, circumstances are proving much more amenable. Thanks to Venezuelan aid Cuba has been able to dispatch medical, security and social workers throughout the region: some 20,000 to Venezuela, 3,000 to Bolivia and unknown numbers to Ecuador and Nicaragua. These missionaries may defect every now and then, but by and large, they have remained faithful to the cause. The secret behind their new efforts is Caracas. ChAvez has begun using his plentiful oil, and oil money, to finance ambitious Cuban-inspired social policies in his own country and elsewhere, either by providing cheap oil (as in Bolivia and Nicaragua) or by helping ease his friends' financial burdens, as with Argentina. So far, many Latin Americans have responded hungrily to such overtures, for they desperately need the education, health care, housing, and low-cost food and clothing that Caracas and Havana are offering.

The problem is that this largesse has been accompanied by a frightening assault on democracy and a concentration of presidential power in Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. The ...