An Intelligent Test? China's new antisatellite program makes sense--at least from Beijing's perspective. But it could turn out to be a dangerous mistake.

Byline: Michael O'Hanlon (O'Hanlon is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and coauthor of "Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security.")

On one level, China's recent test of a new antisatellite weapon was a success: Beijing managed to blast one of its aging weather sensors out of orbit several hundred miles above Earth. On a more profound level, however, the test was a mistake. And if China now continues to develop more space weapons, it could turn into a very serious error indeed.

Before saying why, however, it's worth pausing to recognize that while China's move was misguided, it was also understandable--especially given the United States' own record in space. First of all, China is now a rising power, and determined to play that role to the hilt. The U.S. Defense Department estimates that China already boasts the world's second largest defense expenditures, once adjustments are made for its lower costs and for off-budget military items. After centuries of subjugation at the hands of the West, it is only natural that the Middle Kingdom would seek its rightful place in the sun. Forty years ago this meant developing its own nukes. Today it means building an antisatellite weapon (which, we should remember, is a lot less dangerous than an atom bomb).

Second, the United States is hardly in a position to complain. For decades, Washington has resisted proposals by China and other countries to ban or limit the development of space weapons. Along with the Soviet Union, it tested its own antisatellite capability during the 1980s, and it continues to develop missile defense systems that could be modified fairly easily for use in space; indeed, spending on such projects continued through the Clinton years and has risen under George W. Bush. These systems, which include already deployed (albeit imperfect) launchers in California and Alaska and an airborne laser still under development, are built to knock down ballistic missiles, which travel at about 4.4 miles per second and spend around 15 minutes several hundred miles above Earth. Low-orbiting satellites move at about the same altitude, and only a little faster, along predictable trajectories. If one can shoot down missiles in space--hitting satellites would not be much harder.

It is also important to recognize that the United States already uses many of its satellites for war fighting. The U.S. military now regularly relies on real-time reconnaissance networks that can spot targets from orbit. It also uses satellites to pass information from sensors to shooters, and uses space-based Global Positioning Systems to guide bombs to their targets. It would therefore be dishonest for Washington to argue that space remains a pristine, war-free zone. The heavens may not have been weaponized yet, but they certainly have been militarized--and by a country that would likely come to the defense of China's archrival, Taiwan, in the event of conflict over that disputed island.

Take all this into account and China's recent test starts to look like the natural action of a rising military power that is keeping a wary eye on U.S. military capabilities as it builds its own. Beijing's latest move may have been more clumsy and aggressive than America's ongoing efforts in space. But--forgive the pun--it hardly took place in a vacuum.

All that said, the test was still a strategic miscalculation by China. Leaving aside the question of who started it, Beijing's latest action risks creating a dynamic that could leave all countries, including China, less secure.