A surge in candidates.(POLITICS II)(election in United States)

THOUGH it is winter, the earth teems with growth: presidential campaigns, green and hopeful, yearning for victory in Iowa a year from now.

The Democratic field has filled in nicely, with a lower tier that includes Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich, Tom Vilsack, and Bill Richardson. These men have varying credentials and qualities--Biden is a potent senator, with real intelligence--though in presidential terms they are all flyweights, interesting only as they impede other candidates. Vilsack is a former governor of Iowa; Richardson, despite his last name, is Hispanic; both may act as placeholders, tying down blocs of votes. Orbiting above them is Al Gore, who has turned himself into a green holy roller, and could be a factor if he runs.

That leaves three serious candidates in the race so far. John Edwards, Kerry's running mate in 2004, has spent much of his life winning multimillion-dollar judgments from juries. He is attractive, plausible, and shameless; he runs to the left as the tribune of the oppressed. Hillary Clinton hoped to be the candidate of history, America's belated answer to Abigail Adams's request that her husband and his peers "remember the ladies." She has universal name recognition; unfortunately for her, she also has high and unbudging negatives, stemming from her tumultuous years as First Lady, which she has tried to soften by being an attentive, pothole-filling senator. Her announcement that she will begin her candidacy with a "conversation" on issues recalled the "listening tour" she took as a first-time senatorial candidate. What worked in New York State may be harder to pull off nationally. It also suggests the wariness and passivity of panic.

For Mrs. Clinton, and her fellow Democrats, have been blindsided by ...