AIDS is a tear in the social fabric of Papua New Guinea: HIV and its impact, 2005-2025.

ABSTRACT

Using epidemiological data, this paper discusses the social impact of HIV in Papua New Guinea over the next two decades. It shows that the country will be facing an adult prevalence rate of nearly 11% by 2025, and that over 300,000 adults will die of AIDS related illness. HIV will impact particularly at the family and community levels, and women may bear a disproportionate burden of that impact. Immense pressure will be placed on families to cope with illness and death--both in terms of caring work and coping financially. This, in turn, will place pressure on village systems. These systems will be undermined by the loss of social capital that comes with widespread illness and the negative impact of the epidemic on the agriculture, education and health sectors. The major governance and security impacts will also be felt at village level--how to sustain viable local governance systems in the face of HIV.

KEY WORDS

HIV/AIDS, Papua New Guinea, social impact, local goverance

**********

Epidemic impacts are history changing events. They terminate some lives, incapacitate others and stunt the capabilities of those who have to divert energy and time into care. In the end, sufficient numbers of deaths and illnesses make a society take a path other than that which it would previously have followed. This is impact (Barnett & Whiteside 2002: 159).

Caldwell and Isaac-Toua stated in 2002 that 'there has long been reason to anticipate a major heterosexual epidemic in Papua New Guinea' (104). In 2006, their forecast has been realised. PNG now has 11,852 people diagnosed with HIV by the end of the first quarter of 2006 (The National 2006), and it is estimated that there are, in reality, more than 45,000 other adults living, undiagnosed, with the virus (National Department of Health, National AIDS Council 2006). It has also been predicted that, if there is not a hugely increased response in terms of HIV prevention, treatment and care in PNG, this number will increase exponentially. The HEMI study (1), out of which this paper grows, has estimated that the HIV prevalence rate amongst adults will reach over 10%, and there will be over 300,000 people who will have died of AIDS-related conditions by 2025. If these figures are correct, the social and economic impacts of HIV in PNG will be immense. Even as things stand at present, the impact of HIV is beginning to be felt amongst families and in some communities in PNG. The shockwaves of HIV will be most fully experienced in the next 10 years, and there will be long-wave impacts that will be felt within the two decades with the HEMI study focused.