Apres Fidel.(CUBA)(Fidel Castro)

WHEN Fidel Castro temporarily ceded power to his brother Raul before undergoing intestinal surgery, the Cuban exiles of Miami took to the streets and cheered. And why not? They have felt the weight of Castro's oppression. His precise medical condition isn't known, but the thought of his shuffling off this mortal coil--be it next week or some years hence--makes us smile too.

At the same time, the U.S. should acknowledge the reality that Castro's regime will probably survive him. Nothing suggests that Raul Castro, Fidel's younger brother and designated successor, would be a kinder, gentler dictator. He is reportedly more ideological than Fidel, having belonged to a Communist youth group well before the elder Castro publicly declared himself a socialist. He is responsible for hundreds of extra-judicial assassinations. And while he has expressed some admiration for the current Chinese system, he has shown no desire to retreat from Cuba's Stalinist politics, or even to allow economic reforms as extensive as Deng Xiaoping's. Though Raul is 75 years old, the upper ranks of the Communist leadership are filled with his loyalists, making it likely that his poisonous ideology will live many years longer than he.

Given all this, Fidel's death would not justify a major change in our country's Cuba policy. Indeed, this policy cannot change without congressional authorization, as the 1996 Helms-Burton Act prohibits normalizing relations with any Cuban government that includes Fidel or Raul. That isn't to say the U.S. couldn't do more to promote freedom in Cuba. President Bush's Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba has released a lengthy report detailing how we could simultaneously undermine the Castro dynasty and empower the democratic elements of Cuban society.

To weaken the regime, the commission recommends, among other things, strengthened enforcement of travel restrictions on Americans who wish to visit Cuba. Foreign visitors are ...