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NOT many people are optimistic about the future of Iraq these days. The centrifugal forces threatening to tear the country apart are plain to see. And yet, beneath the surface, the forces impelling Iraq toward the consolidation of central authority are strong and getting stronger. Even under fire, Iraq's democracy is steadily gathering momentum.
There are only so many paths Iraq can take. The central government might collapse in civil war or insurrection; or it might be vulnerable to a fascist-type electoral takeover, with Iran playing a major role. But none of these possibilities is very likely, and the government continues to secure its power. Its success will ...