Damn Yankees: the GOP and its Northeast problem.(POLITICS III)(Republican National Committee)

THOMAS F. SCHALLER, a Democrat who teaches political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, has written a book urging his party to stop trying to win back the South and instead focus on making gains in the Midwest and West. In Whistling Past Dixie, Schaller argues that the twin impact of race and religion on the South's politics puts it out of reach for Democrats, who would be better off investing in parts of the country that are truly swing areas.

Conservatives and Republicans might consider the mirror image of Schaller's "Dump Dixie" thesis. Should the GOP cut and run from liberal New England? Put another way, would it be better off directing the millions it drops trying to keep such mavericks as Chris Shays or the just-defeated Lincoln Chafee in office toward more loyal Republicans in the battlegrounds Schaller cites?

It is tempting, and there are signs that the Northeast is on its way to being lost forever to the GOP. As irritating as the apostasy of a Shays or a Chafee may be, however, the GOP risks much in writing off the region. With control of Congress so closely divided and yet another tight presidential race looming, Republicans can't afford to give up anywhere.

The landscape for New England Republicans is now as bleak as the region's weather in mid-January. The 2006 midterm elections saw the defeat of two of Connecticut's three GOP congressmen, Rhode Island's only Republican in Washington, and both of New Hampshire's GOP House members. At the level of state government, Republicans also lost ground. It's true that three of the region's six states retained their Republican governors; but the governorship of Massachusetts is now held by a Democrat for the first time in 16 years, both chambers of the New Hampshire legislature flipped from Republican to Democratic control, and Connecticut's capitol now hosts veto-proof Democratic majorities, greatly weakening reelected GOP governor Jodi Rell.

As recently as the presidential election of 1988, a Massachusetts-born, Connecticut-bred, part-time Maine resident atop the GOP ticket won four of the region's six states. But George W. Bush lost all six New England states in 2004, after winning only New Hampshire in 2000. Things are almost as bad in Congress. After this year's election, the GOP has just one New Englander in the House (Shays of Connecticut), and only four of the region's twelve senators are Republican. Of New England's 34-member congressional delegation, then, only five are Republicans. And two of the four GOP senators could be on the chopping block in 2008: Susan Collins of Maine and John Sununu of New Hampshire will both be up for reelection, and both will face serious, well-funded Democratic challengers.

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With finite resources, GOP leaders will have to consider which is the wiser use of their money: propping up the unreliable Collins, or investing early to retain conservative senators in places like New Mexico, Colorado, and Minnesota--states in competitive regions where congressional majorities and the keys to the White House could be won or lost. (The importance of these states is demonstrated by the Republicans' choice of Minneapolis-St. Paul to host their 2008 convention, and the Democrats' likely pick of Denver.)