GOP car wreck: a tune-up won't fix it.(political parties after elections)

WELL before midnight on Election Night, three things became clear. First, the Democrats were having a rollicking good election. Second, liberal pundits were having a rollicking good time talking about it. And third, fumbling Republican operatives and flummoxed conservative pundits had lost their perspective on the election, focusing on the narrow margins of some of the Democrats' House and Senate wins and rushing to assert that the voters weren't repudiating their ideas--just the GOP Congress and its corruption, profligate spending, and soggy leadership.

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I'm not denying that some of the Democratic gains were won narrowly (though the same could be said for several Republican saves). And the corruption issue played a significant role in at least a dozen GOP House losses. But the scope of the Democratic victory surpasses any attempt to explain it away. It reflected something far more fundamental, and more challenging: As a vehicle for electing leaders and producing governing ideas, the Republican party is creaking and coasting. It doesn't just need a tune-up (like more get-out-the-vote programs) or a lube job (more money). It must be redesigned from bumper to bumper.

To comprehend the magnitude of the GOP's challenge, look beyond the federal races to state contests. Pre-election, Republicans held a majority of governorships (28-22) and a slight advantage in state legislatures. There are 99 legislative chambers (Nebraska's is unicameral and nonpartisan). Of the 98 partisan bodies, Republicans held 49 and Democrats 47. Two chambers were tied. As a whole, Republicans controlled 20 state legislatures and Democrats 19, with ten legislatures split between the parties. This parity in state governments had been one of the most significant and lasting products of the 1994 Republican revolution, which put an end to Democratic dominance at the state level (going into 1994, Republicans controlled legislatures in only eight states, versus 24 controlled by Democrats).

Things look very different now. The gubernatorial split is reversed, with Democrats holding 28 states. Two big-state losses were New York and Ohio, where Democrats Eliot Spitzer and Ted Strickland won easy victories. California retained Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, but only because he no longer looks much like a Republican. Among the ten most populous states, only Texas, Florida, and Georgia now have mainstream--that is, conservative--Republican governors.

What's worse for the GOP, several notable Democratic governors first elected in relatively close races four years ago breezed to reelection in 2006. In Tennessee, Democrat Phil Bredesen won a 51-48 majority in 2002; in Arizona, Democrat Janet Napolitano managed only a 46-45 squeaker. In 2006, both Bredesen and Napolitano crushed their opponents and won support up into the 60s. In Michigan, Jennifer Granholm became a new Democratic star in 2002 with a 51-48 win. This year, despite a well-funded effort by businessman Dick DeVos and widespread public disaffection with Michigan's economy, Granholm soared to a 56-42 win. By contrast, Republican Tim Pawlenty won the governorship in Minnesota four years ago by a seven-point margin. This year, he offered the GOP a rare bit of good news by eking out a 47-46 reelection.

At the legislative level, Democrats gained at least 320 seats and nine chambers. Republicans gained only one chamber, the Montana house. They did manage a tie in two previously Democratic senates, in Oklahoma and Montana, but party control won't change because both states have Democrats in the appropriate executive-branch offices. There are now 55 Democratic chambers and 40 Republican ones. Democrats control both chambers in 23 states, Republicans in only 15. Even these numbers understate the GOP's problem: In many legislatures already Democratic but not by much, this election expanded the margins significantly. Where Republicans once dreamed of flipping chambers with a gain of a seat or two, they now see yawning gaps. Tim Storey, an analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures, said at a post-election forum that there are now fewer legislative chambers controlled by narrow majorities (below 55 percent) than at any time since the late 1980s.