Long-term trends in the national demand, supply, and shortage of special education teachers.

With a focus on both teacher quality and quantity at the national level, this research examined long-term trends in the demand, supply, and shortage of special education teachers for 16 school years, from 1987/1988 through 2002/2003. These trends were based on data published in annual reports to Congress on the implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act by the Office of Special Education Programs, U.S. Department of Education. Rapid growth in teacher demand for students with disabilities aged 3-5 years was found, whereas the growth in teacher demand for students aged 6-21 years was more gradual and paralleled the rate of growth in teacher demand in general education. Although teacher demand was mostly satisfied by growth in the supply of fully certified teachers, the shortage of fully certified teachers for students with disabilities aged 6-21 years has been chronic since 1987/1988 and has increased annually, from 7.4% in 1993/1994 to 13.4% in 2002/2003 (a shortage of approximately 54,000 special education teachers, including estimated vacant positions).

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The relationship between teacher supply and demand has been described as a "puzzle" based on "the interaction between quality and quantity" (Smith-Davis & Billingsley, 1993, p. 205). This interaction occurs at the local, state, and national levels, and opportunities and responsibilities to address demand-supply imbalances occur at all three levels. With a focus on teacher quality and quantity at the national level, the purpose of this research is to portray and interpret long-term trends in the demand, supply, and shortage of special education teachers (SETs) for 16 school years, from 1987/1988 through 2002/2003.

The total national demand for teachers in public education is commonly defined as the number of teaching positions that have been established and funded, while the total supply of teachers is defined as the number of eligible individuals available from all sources who are willing to supply their services under prevailing conditions (Boe & Gilford, 1992; see Note 1). Ideally, teacher demand is balanced by an adequate supply. Teacher shortages are, of course, the result of either exceptional high demand in relation to supply and/or exceptionally low supply in relation to demand. An inadequate supply of teachers in relation to demand inevitably results in a shortage.

It is widely recognized that there has long been an imbalance between the demand for SETs and the supply of SETs, thereby resulting in serious shortages (e.g., Smith-Davis & Billingsley, 1993; Council for Exceptional Children, 2000; McLeskey, Tyler, & Flippin, 2004; Boe & Cook, 2006). However, analysis of teacher shortages requires a distinction between two types of demand and the adequacy of supply in relation to each type:

* Quantity demand--The demand for the number of teachers to fill all teaching positions that have been created and funded at the district level

* Quality demand--The demand for teachers with specific qualifications (e.g., certification, degree major field, and teaching experience)