War in the Caucasus? The dispute between Georgia and Russia has all the makings of a tragic conflict.

Byline: Anatol Lieven (Lieven is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and author with John Hulsman of "Ethical Realism: A Vision for America's Role in the World.")

Bad relations between Washington and Moscow are nothing new. But this time America may be lurching toward something it carefully avoided throughout the cold war: an armed confrontation between a U.S. client state and Moscow on Russia's own border.

The crisis erupted on Sept. 27, when Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili arrested four Russian officers, accusing them of helping plan a coup against him. The men were soon released, partly under pressure from the United States, but Moscow promptly imposed heavy trade and financial sanctions and recalled its diplomats from Tbilisi. Russian officials have denounced Georgia's government as "fascistic," and the Russian Parliament decried its "state-sponsored terrorism." For his part, Saakashvili accuses Russia of "planning to ruin Georgia."

This comes amid other developments pushing the region toward potential conflict. A key one is unfolding many hundreds of kilometers away, in the Balkans, where the West is likely to soon grant independence to the breakaway Serbian province of Kosovo. What's the link? During the breakup of the Soviet Union, indigenous groups in the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia fought separatist wars in which they received barely veiled help from the Soviet military. These territories have since enjoyed de facto independence, though they aren't formally recognized by any state, including Russia. Moscow has granted Russian citizenship to most of their people, while Russian "peacekeepers" continue to "separate" local forces from their Georgian antagonists. This uneasy truce has prevailed since 1993, broken by periodic violent flare-ups.

But on Sept. 9, when Vladimir Putin invited a group of Western experts to dinner, including me, he issued a stern warning. If the West recognizes Kosovo's independence, Russia may do the same for the former Georgian republics. "It is inadmissible to apply one rule to Kosovo and another to Abkhazia and South Ossetia," he told us. "Such a policy cannot be ethical and has no future." Probably encouraged by Moscow, South Ossetia has scheduled a referendum on independence for November. Meanwhile, Saakashvili warns that any attempt to wrest these regions away would force Georgia to "go to war."

As Russians see it, the West's differing approach to the Balkans and the Caucasus reeks of double standards. Moscow considers itself duty-bound to support Abkhazia and South Ossetia, if only because of fraternal ties. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians live in the republics of the North Caucasus, and the last thing Russia needs is more ethnic unrest in that volatile region. Moscow is also extremely hostile to Georgia's westward tilt. Washington has sent military advisers and equipped the Georgian Army. With the encouragement of many in Washington, Tbilisi is loudly pushing its desire to join NATO. Seen from Moscow, this looks like a U.S. strategy to encircle Russia, destroying its influence in the region.

The Bush administration has repeatedly assured the Kremlin that ...