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PREDICTING THE FUTURE ACCURATELY is extremely difficult. If it weren't, many more of us would be millionaires. Whenever I'm asked to try, I often say only fools or geniuses predict the future. The problem is we don't know who is who until it's too late. We can hardly be blamed for wanting early warning about what to expect.
One's general perspective on life and the future is key. Optimists often hype new technologies, ascribing transformational properties to them that may not be proven or even likely. This pitfall can be difficult to avoid. Having witnessed one of the most technologically transformational periods in human history with the advent of personal computers and the Internet, it is …