Periscope.

Byline: Owen Matthews; Jacopo Barigazzi; George Wehrfritz; Joseph Contreras

Georgia: Russian Rumble

Could Russia and Georgia soon be at war? After Georgian authorities arrested four Rus-sian military officers last week and charged them with spying and terrorism, both sides have been doing a very good imitation of preparing for full-scale conflict. Georgian Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili claimed that the Russian Army was mobilizing in North Ossetia, and was preparing troops for action at a Russian base in Akhalkalaki, inside Georgia. Calls for "decisive action" came from Moscow parliamentarians as hundreds of nationals were evacuated from Tbilisi.

How did relations get so bad? The two neighbors have been at loggerheads ever since the pro-U.S. Mikhail Saakashvili took power in Tbilisi in 2003. The Georgian president has moved his country rapidly toward NATO membership, and in apparent retaliation, Russia banned Georgian imports. And in recent months, Russian-backed separatists inside Georgia have stepped up operations, further heightening tensions.

Still, for all of last week's saber rattling, it's unlikely that war will break out. Instead, Russia has chosen to protest to the United Nations--where Saakashvili recently accused the Kremlin of a "gangster occupation" of two breakaway Georgian provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. That could play into Georgia's hands. If the United Nations becomes involved in resolving Georgia's territorial conflicts, Moscow's jealously guarded role as chief peacekeeper in the former Soviet Union will be eroded. Also, Tbilisi reckons it stands a better chance of ultimately recovering its wayward regions with the United Nations in charge. Still, provoking Russia is a dangerous tactic. There are powerful war parties in both Moscow and Tbilisi who are spoiling for a fight. If it comes, there's little doubt that Georgia will come off worse against a Russian Army flush with oil money and confidence.

--Owen Matthews

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