Second Thoughts; Support for joining the EU has fallen dramatically, driven in part by the high cost of living by European rules.

Byline: Owen Matthews (With Sami Kohen in Istanbul)

Once, Europe was a sweetshop, and Turkey was an eager kid with his face pressed to the window. Just two years ago, polls showed that more than 70 percent of Turks wanted to join the European Union, convinced that following the road to Brussels would make them richer, healthier and freer. Now, only months after long-delayed negotiations finally began, support for the EU has slipped to just 43 percent, and is falling fast.

What caused Turkey's 40-year court-ship of Europe to go so sour so quickly? The most obvious frictions are over Cyprus: Turks feel they are being bullied by Brussels into making further concessions over the divided island. Wounded national pride has punctured the EU dream for many Turks. But a more fundamental point of contention has arisen in nuts-and-bolts economic issues. Slowly and quietly, Turkish leaders of small and medium-size businesses, who are responsible for 55 percent of Turkey's GDP and 70 percent of jobs, are losing enthusiasm for joining the EU.

Why? The cost and hassle of implementing the EU's 80,000-page Acquis Communautaire--the vast canon of rules and regulations on everything from air quality to the size and shape of bananas (imports must not be "abnormally bent"). A new study by the politically powerful Turkish Industry and Business Association estimates the cost of reforming Turkey's huge agriculture sector alone at up to $76 billion over the next decade, a significant hit for a $382 billion economy. Almost every clause of the Acquis Communautaire comes with a giant bill--for example, implementing European drinking-water standards will require digging up vast swaths of Turkey's often haphazardly planned cities to replace crumbling piping.

Worse, it's not clear what the upside of all that upheaval will be. Turkey is already in Europe's Customs Union, and enjoys largely tariff-free trade with the EU. Ankara's politicians continue to insist that Turkey will accept nothing less than full membership--yet those with their eye on the bottom line are starting to recognize that that may not be the best deal. "Farsighted people are realizing that it's not ultimately in Turkey's best interests to join [the EU]," argues analyst Attila Yesilada of the Istanbul-based news station Business Channel. "But at the same time everyone knows that it's important to maintain the facade."

Businessmen like Mehmet Yazici, head of the Altinok extractor-fan factory outside Istanbul, fear they'll go bankrupt complying with EU rules. If Altinok were to go by the book, its old East German-made stamp-pressing machinery would have to be replaced--it doesn't conform to EU safety standards. And under Brussels' labor laws, Yazici wouldn't be able to use teenage part-timers to package boxes after school or ask regular workers to pull 50-hour weeks. "If my labor costs become the same as in Germany, how will I compete?" complains Yazici. "And who will pay for all this new machinery?"

Already, wage inflation is eroding Turkey's main ...