Now Comes The Next War; Before the war, half the Lebanese supported Hizbullah. Now more than 85 percent do.

Byline: Rami G.Khouri (Khouri is editor-at-large of the Daily Star in Beirut.)

The Lebanese Shiite movement Hizbullah has battled Israel tenaciously for nearly a month, at horrendous cost to the people and infrastructure of Lebanon. Soon comes its next fight--a postwar political reckoning. Whether the party emerges from the current conflict weaker or stronger--and stronger seems the answer now--it will then have to battle the country's other political, religious and ethnic groups for the soul and identity of Lebanon.

This face-off will transcend borders, for it is a microcosm of the wider struggle in the Middle East. On one side is the American-led West and Israel, with some very quiet Arab allies; on the other is the movement to affirm an Arab-Iranian-Islamist identity. The ultimate contest will be the confrontation over Iran's nuclear program, followed by the ongoing tug of war over Hamas's democratic incumbency in the Palestinian territories. As for today's war, the Lebanon-Israel conflict will shape the contours of this emerging ideological battle in a variety of important ways.

Even now, the military clash is largely a political war of wills, deterrence and resistance, at least in Hizbullah's view. Holding out for a month and emerging to negotiate a ceasefire represents, to many, a considerable victory. Yet within Lebanon itself, the fighting has both accelerated and camouflaged deep political tensions. Many concern Hizbullah's true identity and ultimate intentions.

Before the war, just over half the Lebanese said they supported Hizbullah's role as an armed resistance group that deterred Israeli attacks. Two weeks after the fighting started, more than 85 percent of Lebanese in one poll said they supported Hizbullah's military attacks against Israel. This included 80 percent of Christians, a figure that was obviously inflated by anger against Israel for its savage attacks against all parts of Lebanon, not just Hizbullah strongholds in the south. But beneath this wartime rallying lurk deeper divisions, and much mistrust. Christians, especially, view the group as Iranian-backed hegemonic extremists. Many say it has brought destruction not only upon itself but the entire nation, and they are angry--even those who express support for the guerrillas. Some privately hope that the American-backed Israeli assault will defeat Hizbullah once and for all. With every bomb that has dropped around us in Beirut, I can feel this divide ...