Unwelcome Visits; Why Japan's political establishment may be ready for a break with the tradition of paying respects at Yasukuni.

Byline: Christian Caryl (With Akiko Kashiwagi and Naoko Kozuki in Tokyo)

It's that time of the year again. "It is a matter of individual freedom as to how one offers condolences to those who died at war," wrote Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in an e-mail to his supporters last week, thus fueling speculation he may be preparing for yet another of his controversial visits to the Yasukuni Shrine--the Tokyo war memorial that honors the souls of a century's worth of Japanese war dead. Some believe that he might even make the trip on August 15, the day that marked the end of World War II 61 years ago. That would undoubtedly infuriate foreign onlookers yet again, especially in China and Korea where Yasukuni is perceived as a symbol of unrepentant militarism because the souls of a group of high-ranking war criminals are enshrined there.

Koizumi's shrine visits have long provoked controversy and debate within Japan, too--and for the first time opponents may be poised to win the highly charged argument. For one thing, Koizumi himself will step off the political stage next month, when he resigns from his post as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. That will open the way for his successor to assume the job of prime minister. At the moment the likeliest candidate appears to be Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, a fellow conservative who nevertheless hinted recently that he probably wouldn't visit the shrine should he become prime minister.

Opposition to such trips has been building for years. Prominent Japanese businessmen, led by Keidanren, the country's most influential industrial lobbying group, have long been agitating for a halt to the ritual, which has sparked serious political tension between China and Japan even as trade between the two countries reaches record levels. Earlier this year the publisher of Japan's most influential newspaper, the Yomiuri Shimbun, shocked his conservative clientele by sharply criticizing Koizumi's position on Yasukuni. Though many members of the ruling party--including younger ones--support the shrine visits, five ex-prime ministers stunned the country by urging Koizumi to reconsider. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, the first LDP member to declare his candidacy in the party's leadership race, is an outspoken opponent. "We have to make a decision that suits our national interest," Tanigaki told NEWSWEEK. "I think it's quite abnormal for our country not to be able to have a summit with neighbors like China and South Korea." In recent polls, 60 percent of those surveyed say that they're opposed to the next prime minister's visiting the shrine.

The latest plot twist may well increase that number dramatically. Last month, Japan's political establishment was shocked by the publication of an 18-year-old memo that purports to recount the true feelings of Hirohito, who was then emperor, on the matter. In 1978, Yasukuni officials decided to enshrine 14 Class A war criminals at the memorial--and after that move Hirohito never visited the shrine again. (The present emperor, ...