Chickens Coming Home to Roost; Israel is like an aging boxer who packs a mighty punch that is no longer effective because its intended victims know how to absorb it.(Cover story)(Viewpoint essay)

Byline: Rami G. Khouri (Khouri is editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star newspaper and a syndicated columnist.)

If you've never seen chickens come home to roost in real time, turn on your television. Watch the expanding military attacks by Israel, Hamas and Hizbullah, and listen to the background music from the United States, Iran and Syria. The widening war is primarily the result of four decades of failed hard-line policies by the United States and Israel, combined with moribund Arab diplomacy and leadership, and resurgent Iranian influence in the region.

The conflict is only partly about retrieving three captured Israeli soldiers held by Hizbullah and Hamas, or the thousands of Arab prisoners held by Israel. What we're seeing is the predictable convergence of several popular and official forces in Arab and Iranian society that feel they have no other option than to defy, confront and resist the combined power of the United States and Israel. Mass popular sentiment in the Arab world is increasingly voting in elections for Islamist movements like the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Resistance groups like Hizbullah and Hamas have much more effective and ample military means at their disposal than before, along with strong public support. Iran and Syria exploit this situation to fuel anti-American, anti-Israeli sentiments, tapping into global concerns about Israeli-American policies.

Israel is like an aging boxer who packs a mighty punch that is no longer effective, because its intended victims know how to absorb and evade it--and, more significantly, how to counterpunch with blows of their own. Behind their strutting demeanor and boastful threats, Israel's generals and politicians flail helplessly, disoriented by the futility of their decision to rely primarily on military options to resolve what are at heart political disputes. The core issue remains the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which can only be resolved by mutual recognition and security, by Israeli and Palestinian sovereign states who address the 1948 Palestinian-refugee issue equitably and legally.

Instead Israel today repeats tactics it has used without success at least five times before in Lebanon since 1968, including destroying dozens of bridges, roads and electricity plants as well as Beirut airport, targeting political institutions, and assassinating militant leaders. They have done the same thing to Palestinians for decades, claiming they aim to stop attacks against Israelis. In fact, they've generated exactly the opposite effect.

With every new Israeli attack against Hamas and Hizbullah leaders or civilian populations, the Lebanese and Palestinian ...