Using viewer attitudes to evaluate TV program effectiveness.

Measures of TV program effectiveness rely on exposure broken out by demographic categories as the standard for purchasing commercial time. Attitudes toward a program might provide supporting evidence regarding program effectiveness. Yet such data are not typically used in the negotiations between advertisers and networks in TV buys. This article examines the key hypothesis that program attitudes are related to future program exposure. It demonstrates that program attitudes in a prior period are at least as strongly related to subsequent exposure as is exposure to the program in prior periods. The analyses also found that program familiarity has a positive effect on subsequent exposure only in conjunction with positive attitudes. Independent of positive attitudes, familiarity has little effect on subsequent exposure.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Measures of TV program effectiveness have traditionally relied on exposure. Nielsen's Television Index (NTI) is the standard, primarily because Nielsen is the only source of television ratings based on a national sample. NTI measures exposure at the individual level through People Meters designed to identify the individual watching. It develops an index of exposure based on total program minutes watched by an individual divided by total minutes aired. Program exposure indexes are then compiled by total audience (the ratings data that are generally reported) and by demographic category. NTI data serve as a basis for the upfront negotiations that take place between the TV networks and advertisers to buy advertising space for the upcoming season. NTI is also the basis for the networks providing the advertisers with "makegoods," that is, reimbursements to advertisers when programs do not meet minimum media exposure targets.

It can be reasonably argued that measures of TV program effectiveness (and generally media effectiveness) should rely on attitudes as well as exposure. Attitudinal data might provide a better indication of the strength of a program. For example, a program might have high ratings, but if the "likeability" of the program among viewers is decreasing, it might forecast a decrease in exposure. If this is true, then data on both attitudes and exposure should be considered in media buys, particularly in the upfront negotiations.

It is well established in the behavioral literature that attitudes are related to behavior (see Fishbein, 1967; Lutz, 1991; Smith and Swinyard, 1983). Positive attitudes toward a brand increase the likelihood of buying it (Bass and Wilkie, 1973; Lutz, 1977). Similarly positive attitudes toward a program may increase the probability and frequency of viewing it.

It is the purpose of this article to examine the key hypothesis that program attitudes are related to future program exposure. Specifically, we will compare the relationship of current attitudes and program exposure to future exposure (that is, future program ratings). If program attitudes are as strongly related to future ratings as prior exposure, they should be regarded as a valid criterion of program effectiveness.

PAST RESEARCH

The program environment

The genesis of interest in program attitudes is the assumption that such attitudes carry over to attitudes toward commercial content (see Clancy and Kweskin, 1971; Krugman, 1966, 1983; Lloyd and Clancy, 1991; Schwerin, 1960). The basic question is whether the media environment affects the nature of the response to advertising. Espousing a minority view, Papazian believes that the program environment does not affect viewer responses to commercials. He states that "While there is some evidence suggesting that highly involving programs have a positive effect on commercial exposure opportunities, most viewers recognize advertising messages as separate and distinct entities--not as part of the program they were watching" (Papazian, 1983, p. 74).

Among those who support a "program environment effect," there are two opposing schools of thought. The "negative effects school" holds that the more engaged and involved the viewer is with the program, the more resentful the viewer will be toward any commercial intrusion (see Bryant and Comisky, 1978; Pavelchak, Antil, and Munch, 1988; Soldow and Principe, 1981). The "positive effects school" holds that there is a carryover of positive affect toward and involvement with the program to the commercial. There is consistency between attitude toward the program and attitude toward the commercial (see Kennedy, 1971; Singh and Churchill, 1987; TAA, Inc., 1984, 1986).

In an attempt to resolve the debate, Lloyd and Clancy (1991) did a thorough review of past studies and found that those supporting the negative effects hypothesis tended to identify a corollary of attitudes, program involvement, as a program-specific rather than a consumer-specific variable. A given program was thus predetermined as either high or low in involvement. In the studies supporting a positive link between programs and commercials, consumers could range from high to low on involvement for the same program. Because program involvement was not predetermined, consumer attitudes toward the program were more likely to be correlated to attitudes toward the commercials.

Lloyd and Clancy correctly formulated involvement as a consumer-specific variable so that involvement could vary by program. This treatment …