The World's Toughest Job; Mexico's institutions were constructed under the 20th century's longest-lasting regime and are totally dysfunctional under democracy.

Byline: CastaÑeda, a former foreign minister of Mexico, is now Global Distinguished Professor of Politics and Latin American Studies at New York University

This may be a long hot summer in Mexico, but the outcome seems not to be in doubt. Perhaps by only half a percentage point, possibly with huge demonstrations taking place through the end of August, with or without the vote-by-vote recount demanded by former Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Felipe Calderon will be declared Mexico's next president by early September at the latest. If this writer had not also wanted the job at one time, he would, along with many others, tell Calderon that he really has nothing to celebrate. The conditions under which he will take office on Dec. 1 are about as adverse and complex as anyone could imagine, and the challenges he will face are practically insurmountable.

The parties whose candidates also ran, and lost, will pose his first challenge. The PRI will hopefully disintegrate at long last, slightly more than half of its congressmen and senators defecting to the left, others to Calderon. But Lopez Obrador's PRD will support him to the bitter end (unless the party finds that it has to cut a deal with the new president in order to govern Mexico City effectively--it won the mayoralty of the capital with nearly 50 percent of the vote). Calderon has announced he will attempt to form a coalition government with his opponents. Yet while he will certainly be able to pick off a few former PRI members, particularly from former president Ernesto Zedillo's administration, priistas in Congress are unlikely to go along with his attempts to implement the myriad reforms Mexico needs so desperately.

The drawn out, incredibly expensive and unsubstantive campaign showed one thing--that poverty and inequality are the central issue facing the country. Mexico is too rich a nation to have so many of its people living in poverty. President Vicente Fox was able to reduce the ranks of the poor, but not enough. Lopez Obrador convinced voters that this was the main question for Mexico, but they never believed he could solve it. Calderon almost did not address it, but understands it. The problem today is how to design and apply policies that truly reduce poverty, that are sustainable and cost effective, and that can count on a consensus in the Congress to fund them. Mexico has made significant strides in this field, since the Zedillo administration, thanks to the Progresa program, renamed Oportunidades under Fox. But the new ...