South Korea: The Pendulum Swings; Buoyed by massive local victories, the opposition starts to focus on who could lead them back to the presidency.

Byline: B. J. LEE (With Christian Caryl)

South Korea's presidential election is 18 months away, but the race is already underway. Contrary to what one might expect, it's not shaping up as a competition between the incumbent (Roh Moo Hyun) and a challenger. The president's progressive Uri Party suffered such a catastrophic defeat in local elections at the end of May--losing 15 out of 16 mayoral and gubernatorial races--that its defeat seems like a foregone conclusion. "If the presidential elections were held today, there is no doubt the [opposition] Grand National Party [GNP] would win," says Lee Jung Hee, a political scientist at the Hankook University of Foreign Studies in Seoul. "In the local elections, the voters practically voted out the ruling party."

That's why the suspense centers on who will become the presidential nominee for the GNP. Analysts say voters have been disillusioned by a sluggish economy (blamed by some on Roh's labor-friendly interventionism) and strained relations with the United States. "Koreans now want more pragmatic and less idealistic policies," Lee says.

The GNP's two leading presidential aspirants couldn't be more different. Park Geun Hye, 54, a daughter of former president Park Chung Hee, is a political princess. She resigned as the GNP's chairwoman on June 16 in order to focus on the presidential race. Her rival is current Seoul mayor Lee Myung Bak, 65, a rags-to-riches tycoon with proven business skills. His mayoral term ends June 30. While the two have lived entirely different lives, they share similarly conservative views on everything from the economy to foreign policy. Both, for example, want to improve relations with Washington and go slow on rapprochement with North Korea. Both favor eased regulations on big business and tighter control on labor.

At the moment, Park is in the lead in opinion polls. She took over the GNP two years ago and orchestrated a string of political victories. Her family pedigree undoubtedly helps. Her late ...