Bullish on Bangladesh; The headlines are grim. But they mask what is shaping up to be one of the world's most amazing turnarounds.

Byline: George Wehrfritz and Hassan Shahriar

These days, it's not easy to be bullish on Bangladesh. Last month militant labor unions declared war on the country's vital textile industry, attacking dozens of mills and torching several in a struggle for wage hikes and new benefits. And just last week opposition parties bent on toppling Prime Minister Khaleda Zia staged a two-day national strike to demand electoral reforms ahead of parliamentary contests slated for early 2007. Their street actions temporarily closed the country's main port, halted public transport and triggered bloody clashes with riot police armed with tear gas, truncheons and rubber bullets. Observers warn that tensions could escalate as election season approaches; Britain's top diplomat in Dhaka, Anwar Choudhury, has voiced "grave concerns about the level of politically motivated violence."

Civil unrest is always worrisome in a densely populated nation that still ranks among the world's 50 poorest, to be sure. Yet what's remarkable about the grim headlines emanating from Dhaka of late is how little they threaten the country's stubbornly robust national economy. In spite of sporadic unrest, rampant corruption and a polarized political system that's all but dysfunctional, Bangladesh finds itself in the midst of a sustained boom. On June 8, Finance Minister Saifur Rahman forecast that the national economy would grow by 6.7 percent in 2006. The main drivers: surging export growth and a robust service sector.

In textiles, the country's mainstay manufacturing industry, export earnings rose by 17 percent last year to $7.5 billion, confounding forecasts that Bangladesh would lose market share to China once World Trade Organization textile quotas expired at the end of 2004. This year Bangladesh's garment makers expect to garner $10 billion abroad. Foreign investment is rising, too. The attraction is an economy that has expanded by 4 percent or more yearly since 1991, cutting the national poverty rate by 15 percent in the process. "Bangladesh is no more a country of despair," declared Rahman during his annual budget address earlier this year. "It is a country of hope and potential."

The Bangladesh boom defies some of development theory's central tenets. For decades, experts have identified political stability and effective governance as critical prerequisites for economic takeoff. But this lowland nation of 145 million is making tangible progress largely without them. Bangladesh now leads South Asia in most social-welfare indicators--including female literacy and poverty reduction. Its fertility rate is near replacement level. And Bangladesh is the only South Asian country on track to meet its United Nations-mandated Millennium Development Goals of reducing poverty by half by 2015. "When I go to India or Pakistan from Bangladesh, people ask, 'What is it you do, cook up all your statistics?' " says Muhammad Yunus, founder of microlender Grameen Bank. "They ask, 'Why are we falling behind when we're doing the right things, while you are doing the wrong things but getting the right answer?' "

There's no pat explanation for Bangladesh's unlikely success. Certainly, experts agree that the country urgently needs better governance to achieve its full potential of double-digit annual growth. Yet the country has disproved one assumption: that Asia's dynamic twin giants--China and India--would grow at the expense of their less efficient, less open neighbors. Instead, Bangladesh looks attractive as a cost-beating sweatshop economy precisely because China and India are thriving. Both have grown more expensive as manufacturing bases relative to Bangladesh, and rising domestic demand within each makes them ...