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Has the World Cup delivered the advertising growth predicted?
The World Cup must drive some media owners to distraction. Every four years, the first signs of global football fever appear in late spring, as the air grows thick with reports from agencies predicting that the tournament will deliver a huge boost to the world's ad industries.
ZenithOptimedia said global ad growth would accelerate during 2006 because of the World Cup windfall. MindShare's prediction was more specific. It estimated that, in the best of all possible worlds, the tournament could generate a pounds 30 million boost to the UK ad economy - though it predicted increases in TV spend would happen before and after, but not during, the event.
You can say that again. And this clearly isn't the best of all possible worlds, because the World Cup, especially for UK broadcasters, is something of a recurring nightmare. It's like that often-shown archive footage of a top player trying to walk the ball into an empty net during a big game - he slips, collides with the post and the ball dribbles wide.
Perhaps the biggest gap between expectation and reality came during France 98. Fearing clutter and a fearsome spike in airtime prices, planners and buyers thought they'd be clever by shifting their money into pre- and post-tournament periods - and so many of them did this that the World Cup itself, in UK ad market terms, was flat.
It looks like happening again this time around. But who knows - perhaps the cannier media owners have learned to expect the worst. That way, they can't really be disappointed. So, is the World Cup meeting expectations where advertising activity is concerned?
Gary Digby, the managing director of ITV Sales, is putting a brave face on things. He prefers to focus on the network's status relative to its closest rivals. He states: 'In a weak advertising market, ITV is certainly performing much better than other commercial TV channels in June, thanks to the World Cup coverage. Many advertisers are taking advantage of this fantastic opportunity to reach a highly sought-after and lucrative male audience.'