The Closing of the American Internet; A sizeable portion of the unwired simply have no interest in what the Internet has to offer.

Byline: John Sparks

When the U.S. Census Bureau proclaimed the American frontier closed in 1890, it signaled the end of the boom-and-bust era and the beginning of a more stately pace of growth. Now that the dotcom bubble has come and gone, is the same thing about to happen to that other American frontier, the Internet?

It may be, according to recent studies. In the past decade, the number of U.S. households with Internet access has risen nearly sixfold, to 64 percent, says Dallas-based technology consultants Parks Associates. That certainly sounds like a boom. But from here on out, things will be different. Internet penetration is expected to rise only 1 percent in 2006, with similarly tepid growth after that--topping out well below the 75 percent penetration predicted a few years ago. As the Internet transforms many aspects of society, 70 million Americans are choosing to sit it out.

And it really is a choice. John Barrett, author of the Parks study, points out that although vast rural areas of the U.S. remain underserved, only 2 percent of netless folks express a strong desire to get hooked up. It's not that they're particularly poor or old. Surveys show that few among them are deterred by the price of Internet service. "It's not just your grandmother who's off-line," he says.

Neither are they technophobes: TV ownership is nearly universal in America, 83 percent of all households have DVD players, and more than three in four Americans have a cell phone. Research suggests that a sizable portion of the unwired simply have no interest in what the Internet offers.

In the face of this indifference, should the government promote universal access? Experience suggests that can have a big effect. During Vice President Al Gore's two terms, from 1992 to 2000, ...