Bulgars; As the EU prepares to admit two new members, doubts are setting in. How far should 'Europe' go?

Byline: William Underhill

For a Bulgarian, Vasil Ivanov made a risky career choice. He became an investigative reporter for a national TV station, learning plenty about corrupt officialdom and the country's flourishing underworld. Too much for his own safety: earlier this month unknown enemies detonated a bomb outside his home in Sofia. No one was hurt, but he's now under police guard--not for the first time. Says Ivanov: "It was a crime against journalism and free speech."

It was also a big black mark against Bulgaria. The bombing adds to a long list of unsolved crimes that have helped to dirty the country's name as it prepares to join the European Union. Together with Romania, its struggle to curb corruption and organized crime provides one more excuse for Western politicians to play up worries over the bloc's eastward expansion. Next month the European Commission will issue a report that may recommend a year's postponement of both nations' membership, currently slated for Jan. 1, 2007. Entry to the Brussels club, officials say, can't be guaranteed without further improvements in both their records. And on that, says the EU's enlargement supremo, Olli Rehn, "the jury is still out."

Whatever the verdict, it will be read with interest across the Balkans. Romania has an edge right now, thanks to the reformist zeal of its new government under President Traian Basescu, who's worked hard to clean up the country's judicial system and push out corrupt officials. But it's still no shoo-in. Meanwhile, a clutch of other states are lining up for eventual EU membership, promised a place in the wider European family as a reward for good democratic behavior. Croatia and Turkey already have their slots on the official candidates' list; the rest anxiously await their turn even as sentiment in Western capitals turns against them. The treatment of Bulgaria and Romania will send a signal of discouragement--or hope.

Bulgaria makes a handy case study. Clearly, Sofia has much to do, particularly with regard to the rule of law. According to a recent survey, almost 60 percent of Bulgarians believe their judges are corrupt. Nor has the government made much progress against organized crime. The Interior Ministry recorded 156 contract killings over the past five years, many of them distressingly public. Convictions are almost unknown. "It may happen more often in Naples, but at least in Italy they have some success in prosecution," says Boyko Todorov of the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia, which recently released a report chronicling what it calls the country's wholesale "institutionalization of political corruption."

By contrast, neighboring Romania has been scoring points in Brussels. Prosecutors in Bucharest are at last grappling with the old culture of cronyism. Heading their target list: former prime minister Adrian Nastase, who resigned last month as speaker of Parliament following corruption charges linked to shady property deals. Not that Brussels is yet satisfied. More convictions would be welcome, as well as progress in the fight against people trafficking.

Despite all this, EU watchers expect that both countries will be admitted in January, problems or not. "We are too far down the track," says Lucia Montanaro-Jankovski of the European Policy Centre in Brussels. EU officials also ...