Cutting a Deal With Tehran; Washington should leave its ambitions for regime change to developments within Iran--namely, prosperity and a sense of security.

Byline: Mahmood Sariolghalam (Sariolghalam is an associate professor of international relations at the National University of Iran.)

Richard Nixon deserves more credit. His historic 1972 trip to China was indeed, as the president himself called it, "the week that changed the world." His bold gambit broke two decades of silence between seemingly implacable cold-war enemies. From that day on, relations went from guarded to normal to, at times, almost friendly. And if China today is no democracy, it is globalized

and free-market--with every prospect that prosperity will sooner or later cause its autocratic leadership to wither away.

The time is ripe for another Nixon-style strategic initiative--toward Iran. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last week jubilantly announced his country's membership in the world's nuclear club. The claim may be premature, but it was a clear sign of Tehran's intent. The defiant rhetoric was matched in Washington, where senior Bush-administration officials called for U.N. sanctions and muttered darkly about the need for "regime change," beyond merely halting Iran's nuclear ambitions. Despite loose talk of a military strike, possibly deploying U.S. tactical nukes, conflict is not imminent. But it may be inevitable--unless a deal is done.

That's the bad news. The good news is that a diplomatic settlement--one as dramatic as Nixon's--may indeed be possible. To achieve it, it's essential to accept several givens:

First, we must understand why, precisely, the Iranian government insists on independent and domestic uranium enrichment. Iranians feel they are destined to become a (and perhaps the ) regional player in the Middle East. Power and recognition is the cornerstone of Tehran's security and foreign policy. As the Iranian leadership sees it, a nuclear capability is Iran's only security guarantee in a troubled and unstable neighborhood--a conviction that is only heightened by American saber rattling. To this must be added an economic justification. By 2018, according to demographic estimates, Iran's population will exceed 100 million, two thirds of them younger than 30. Simply to satisfy surging domestic energy needs and maintain growth, Iran will need dependable sources of power beyond oil. Weaponized or not, Iran must go nuclear.

A second reality: surrounded by U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, Iran feels threatened by America. The ...