TOUGH CALL; The Nextel Cup field is full of potential champions, but one stands out.(Motorsports)

Byline: AL PEARCE

Conventional wisdom says experience and familiarity trump inexperience and uncertainty every time. Given your druthers, you would prefer a championship driver returning to a championship team intact from its latest championship season.

So how come we're not sold on Tony Stewart repeating as Nextel Cup champion? Are we daft? Probably. Foolish? Maybe. Spooked that nobody has successfully defended since Jeff Gordon in 1997-98? A little. Worried Stewart's seamless 2005 was a fluke and he is still a ticking bomb waiting to explode again? No, definitely not. We're not sure what is keeping us from confidently saying Stewart, crew chief Greg Zipadelli and Joe Gibbs Racing will get their third Nextel Cup in five years.

Maybe it's because Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus finished fifth, second, second and fifth in points in the previous four seasons at Hendrick Motorsports. Plus, they have more victories (18), more top-10s (86) and more points (22,436) than anyone over that stretch. Due for a Cup? How about overdue? Maybe even double overdue?

Or perhaps it is because Mark Martin finished in the top-10 in points 15 times in 18 seasons with Roush Racing. Martin has been second or third eight times and is unquestionably the all-time best racer without a Cup on his resume. Is this, Martin's second annual "Salute to the Fans Farewell Tour,'' the season that gets it done? Hey, if Jack Roush can help Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch win Cups, why not Martin?

Maybe it's because Gordon and new crew chief Steve Letarte used last year's final 10 races to prep for this year. (They won once and were top-10 four times in those events.) Gordon finished in the top-10 in points 11 times in 13 full seasons with Hendrick, so last year's swoon to 11th still rankles the four-time champion. Gordon seems uncommonly confident he and Letarte have something special.

Then there is Carl Edwards, who stood NASCAR on its head last year. After a few starts late in 2004, the Roush wunderkind won two poles, four races and finished third in points in 2005. Just for kicks, Edwards won four Busch Series poles, five races and finished third in points despite missing a race. For sure, this dude is the real deal; refreshingly, he doesn't seem to know it yet.