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Fed Watcher: Recession Remains Preferable to Inflation.
Orlando, FL -- No matter who the Federal Reserve Board chairman may be, its message is that if there is a choice between inflation and recession, it will let the country slide into recession.
That is what Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Doug Duncan told both a separate press briefing and a general session at the group's annual convention here.
The Fed will raise rates 25 basis points at each of its next two meetings, Mr. Duncan said. He made the point that under Ben Bernanke, the policy will not change.
Another point that Mr. Duncan made during his presentation is that spreads between the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed-rate mortgage have returned to approximately 150 basis points.
After the "flight to quality" in 1998, the spreads had widened to approximately 200 bps.
For 2005, the mortgage banking industry should have its third-best year ever, with volume of $2.78 trillion.
Volume for the next two years will decline to $2.26 trillion and then $2.15 trillion, he predicted. Rates on the 30-year fixed will rise from 6.2% at the end of this year, to 6.8% by the end of 2007.
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