Opinion: Power for Three; In the decades ahead, Japan, India and China will all jostle for regional influence. Call it tripartite Asia.

Byline: George Wehrfritz

On the eve of the milestone East Asian Summit in Malaysia, China's state media last week trumpeted Beijing's "constructive attitude" toward the meeting. Yet in a briefing on prospects for the confab, senior diplomat Cui Tiankai declared it "impossible" for Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to sit down with his Japanese counterpart, Junichiro Koizumi, for a sideline chat. The reasons for Wen's unwillingness were left unstated. But it's fair to conclude that China would rather preserve Japan as a diplomatic adversary than actually engage Tokyo to resolve pressing bilateral issues.

That a Sino-Japanese chat is not possible exposes the implausibility of Asian political unity any time soon. The Chinese have an idiom that captures the essence of such unions: "Same bed, different dreams." Beijing's cynical approach toward relations with Tokyo is part of the problem, to be sure. But the underlying futility is rooted in the fact that Asia is now graced by three contending big powers. Despite the hype of a "Chinese century," a more realistic forecast has China, Japan and India jostling for influence for decades to come. Call it tripartite Asia.

As in Europe at the dawn of the 20th century, no Asian power is even close to achieving hegemony. China has yet to translate its economic clout into a coherent case ...