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The Fund for Peace, "The Failed States Index," Foreign Policy, July/August 2005 (foreignpolicy.com)
The U.S. National Security Strategy concluded in 2002 that America is now threatened less by conquering states than we are by failing ones." To assess where this threat lies, the Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine have conducted a global ranking of weak and failing states that encompasses 60 nations.
The methodology uses 12 indicators of instability: demographic pressures, refugees and displaced persons, group grievances, human flight, uneven development, economic decline, delegitimization of the state, public services, human rights, security apparatus, factionalized elites, and external intervention. Scores were distributed after analysis of tens of thousands of international and local media sources during the last six months of 2004. In their results, the researchers conclude that 2 billion people live in insecure states.
The ten countries most at risk already show clear signs of state failure. Ivory Coast tops the list; cut in half by civil war, it is "the most vulnerable to disintegration." It is followed by the ...