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The Real Cost Of Oil.(ISSUES & INSIGHTS)(EDITORIALS)(Editorial)
Economy: How much impact will the recent trebling of oil prices have on the economy? If a new study on productivity is any guide, it could be larger than we think.
The best measure of any economy isn't GDP, jobs or inflation. It's productivity, or the growth in output per hour. Wages, profits and standards of living are all determined by it. A productive nation, over time, is a wealthy nation.
That's why so many studies have been devoted to solving one of the great puzzles of the postwar era: why productivity, which grew at a hefty 2.8% before 1973, suddenly slowed to half that pace -- at least until 1996, when it just as suddenly sped up again.
A new study by economist William Nordhaus suggests the answer can be found in one word: oil. The soaring price of crude after 1973's Arab oil embargo, he notes, cost the U.S. trillions of dollars in output and caused living standards to shrivel.
The slowdown was felt most acutely in pipelines, auto repair and oil and gas extraction -- "industries heavily affected by the energy crises of the 1970s," Nordhaus says in his study, "The Productivity Slowdown of the 1970s." It also hit many other industries, cutting into wage growth and fanning inflation for years.
No, it didn't last forever. ...
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- Saudi Arabia may step up productivity capacity. (oil production capacity)
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