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Editorial - This Goldilocks market is baffling.

Europe Intelligence Wire

| September 01, 2005 | COPYRIGHT 2005 Financial Times Ltd. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

(From Reinsurance)

Byline: Mark Geoghegan, editor, mark.geoghegan@incisivemedia.com.

You know that on the ratings front, I'm a dyed-in-the wool pessimist, but in the late summer warmth, somewhere near the end of this exceptionally hard-market cycle, I have started to suffer from some nagging doubts.

Just like a traditional stock analyst at the height of the dot.com bubble, I'm beginning to wonder if the young kids are right, and there really is a 'new paradigm' after all. Being wrong for so long is starting to make me look more than a little foolish, and I've been out of the super-heated market while all the kids that I dismissed as fools two years previously have multiplied their money many times over. Maybe the hard-market party can carry on for a good while longer - who knows? Perhaps indefinitely.

But just as I start to wonder if this market is ever going to soften significantly, I remember that I have to have faith in the fool lurking in the heart of all humans.

One good year's result, and an underwriter is praised for his good fortune.

Two in a row, and he gets a hefty bonus. A third successive year in the black, and he might start believing that he's a bit special. A fourth great year ... well, that's never happened in my lifetime, so no worries there.

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