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(From Reinsurance)
Byline: Mark Geoghegan, editor, mark.geoghegan@incisivemedia.com.
You know that on the ratings front, I'm a dyed-in-the wool pessimist, but in the late summer warmth, somewhere near the end of this exceptionally hard-market cycle, I have started to suffer from some nagging doubts.
Just like a traditional stock analyst at the height of the dot.com bubble, I'm beginning to wonder if the young kids are right, and there really is a 'new paradigm' after all. Being wrong for so long is starting to make me look more than a little foolish, and I've been out of the super-heated market while all the kids that I dismissed as fools two years previously have multiplied their money many times over. Maybe the hard-market party can carry on for a good while longer - who knows? Perhaps indefinitely.
But just as I start to wonder if this market is ever going to soften significantly, I remember that I have to have faith in the fool lurking in the heart of all humans.
One good year's result, and an underwriter is praised for his good fortune.
Two in a row, and he gets a hefty bonus. A third successive year in the black, and he might start believing that he's a bit special. A fourth great year ... well, that's never happened in my lifetime, so no worries there.