...But Bubble Babble May Be All Talk.(housing market )

New York -- Everyone is talking about a "bubble" in house prices, but most economists who follow the housing finance industry see little evidence of a widespread problem with house prices.

Sure, some hot markets may be vulnerable to a decline in home values, especially if interest rates rise markedly or the economy takes a dive. But for most of the nation, home values remain in line with historical reference points.

And for most homeowners, even a flattening of home price appreciation or an outright decline may post little risk.

Doug Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, put the debate into perspective during a recent meeting with editors at SourceMedia's mortgage publications.

He points out that more than a third of homeowners - 34.6% - have no mortgage debt at all on their property. And another 51% have a fixed-rate loan, so their monthly payments won't adjust upward if rates do move higher. All told, that means 86% of households either have no debt or have a conservative, fixed-rate home loan.

While the share of homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages has been climbing, it remains a modest share of the market, he pointed out. Until the recent drop in long-term interest rates, ARMs had been accounting for well over 30% of new mortgage applications. But that still hasn't translated into a high share of the outstanding homeowner market.

"Basically, you are talking about 14% to 15% of the market that has an ARM," he said.