The Ramos factor.

(From Philippine Daily Inquirer)

Byline: Luis V. Teodoro

DESPITE her basement-level approval and trust ratings-and calls for her resignation from the opposition, business groups, academe, erstwhile members of her Cabinet, former political allies, Corazon Aquino and a broad range of militant, religious, people's and non-governmental organizations-President Macapagal-Arroyo has so far defied predictions that she would be forced out of office by the hemorrhage of her support that began last July 7.

The Catholic bishops' decision not to ask her to resign came later. What stopped the bleeding was former President Fidel Ramos' declaration of support, on condition that she preside over Charter change and the shift to the parliamentary system.

The Ramos "solution" to Ms Arroyo's predicament put him on collision course with former President Aquino and the Franklin Drilon faction of the Liberal Party. But not surprisingly, Ramos' act was followed by the jumping of the remaining Cabinet members, House Speaker Jose de Venecia and the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrat party to Ms Arroyo's defense. The threat of military intervention also waned as the Armed Forces chief of staff declared the AFP's "neutrality."

Like Ramos, De Venecia is focused on changing the present presidential system to a parliamentary one, as all third-termers in both houses of Congress are. Barred from seeking fourth terms under the present system, these third-termers can see to it that they can run for parliament in 2006.

But the far juicier prospect is that a parliament under Lakas-CMD's control can hand over to failed presidential aspirant De Venecia the post of prime minister. Ramos is himself not very popular among Filipinos. But he would share in the spoils once a parliament is in place, perhaps, as a president with powers equal to those of the prime minister, or in some other equally pivotal capacity.