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Walnut Creek, CA -- The Northeast and California again top the list of areas with the greatest risk of widespread home price declines, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. And nationally, the risk of widespread price declines in the nation's 50 largest housing markets increased slightly in the spring compared to the winter quarter, according to PMI.
In general, PMI said that coastal markets crowd the top of its index of markets with the highest risk of a price decline.
The PMI risk index represents PMI's view of the probability of a regional decline in home prices in the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas over the next two years.
Fourteen of the 15 metropolitan areas with the greatest risk are in either the Northeast or in California.
"The latest PMI Risk Index numbers reveal that most of the increase in house-price risk is concentrated in certain markets, caused by regional weakening in affordability. Local house price appreciation, in many cases in the double digits, has outpaced local income growth," said Mark Milner, chief risk officer with PMI Mortgage Insurance, in a company news release.
PMI said the latest index reveals "stratification," with the risk of a price decline increasing in the highest risk areas and decreasing in low-risk areas.
Of the 50 largest markets, nine have a greater than 40% chance of seeing a price decline, according to PMI's index. In 20 of the lower risk markets, the risk of a decline is lower than 10%.