Running From Risk.(SERIES: THE CASE FOR THE STOCK MARKET)(ISSUES & INSIGHTS)(EDITORIALS)(Editorial)

Investing: Should Americans stake more of their retirement on the stock market? The dependency lobby says no -- better to trust politicians' promises and brace for tax hikes. It's time to hear the market's side.

As we watch President Bush trying to nudge public opinion his way on Social Security, we know better than to count him out. But we've also seen what he's up against. It's a daunting mix of organized opposition, misunderstanding and, maybe most of all, fear.

That fear, which is being exploited expertly by Democrats in Congress, AARP and organized labor, centers on the stock market and on the dangers, real or supposed, to ordinary Americans who entrust it with their retirement money.

Their argument is simple: Allowing private investment accounts in Social Security would trade a sure thing for an unacceptable risk. As one AARP ad puts it, "If we feel like gambling, we'll play the slots." Framed that way, the choice seems easy. Shun the casino and stick with the status quo. It's no wonder Bush can't seem to move the polls.

About that "sure thing," we and many others have noted that the government's promise of future retirement benefits is unfunded and untenable. Social Security as currently structured is due to start running in the red as the baby boomers retire and to go broke as the boomers' kids hit their own golden years. By and large, the American public seems to get this point.

Many are also skeptical of the stock market. A Gallup poll taken early in April asked the question, "If you had a thousand dollars to spend, do you think investing it in the stock market would be a good or bad idea?" Only 45% thought it would be a good idea; 51% said they would rather stay out.

Such thinking gives the AFL-CIO, AARP and others a head start in turning the public against private accounts.