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Gamal-nomics; Egypt: Nasser led the Arab economies into corruption and long-term decline. Can a young Mubarak lead them out?
Byline: Rana Foroohar (With Gameela Ismail in Cairo)
Even by Middle Eastern standards, Egypt has never been an easy place to do business. Its inwardly focused economy has stagnated for the past seven years. Inflation is rife, tariffs and unemployment are among the highest in the world, and red tape is endless, thanks to a command and control state with 6 million civil servants. But while the statistics couldn't get much worse, hopes for the Egyptian economy are the highest they've been in a decade, thanks to a new generation of reformers led by presidential scion Gamal Mubarak.
The son of Hosni Mubarak is the namesake of Gamal Abdel Nasser, the iconic former president who in the 1960s elevated Egypt's place in the Arab world even as he led the economy down the socialist tubes. The younger Mubarak has none of Nasser's deep connection to the common man, and is viewed more as a well-meaning member of the elite than a pivotal leader or real political reformist. What he does have is a highly skilled and unusually cohesive team of economic technocrats around him. "This is the first time that there's been more than just one or two people in the cabinet talking about economic reform," says Robert Springborg, head of the London Middle East Institute.
The new government, which took control last summer, includes former Unilever Egypt head Rasheed Mohammed Rasheed, now minister of Foreign Trade and Industry; Minister of Finance Youssef Boutros-Ghali, and, most importantly, Mahmoud Mohieldin, the 39-year-old Western-educated minister of Investment known for his analytical skills and excellent political nose. Capitalizing on post-9/11 Western pressure for reform and internal desperation over poverty and inflation, the new guard has slashed average tariffs from 14.6 to 9 percent, cut tax rates in half and kick-started a stalled privatization program. The result: a new sense of hope about Egypt's prospects and its effect on the region. "The new group of ministers speaks my language," says Adel Beshai, an economist at the American University in Cairo. "I think this is the most optimistic moment in 50 years."
Of course, it's easy to be overly optimistic when it comes to Egyptian reform. The country has ...
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Source: HighBeam Research, Gamal-nomics; Egypt: Nasser led the Arab economies into corruption...