THE ECONOMY.(TO THE POINT)

Tax refunds becoming a drag

Tax refunds averaged some $18 bil a week in Feb., up 9% vs. a year earlier, helping fuel consumer spending. In March they averaged $12 bil, up just 1%. In the week ended April 1, they declined 3.4% vs. a year ago. Coming as higher gasoline prices act as a tax on consumers, especially the poor, they could restrain overall economic growth in Q2.

Midwest manufacturing edges up

The Chicago Fed's factory activity gauge rose 1.4% in Feb. from Jan. and 3.3% from year-earlier levels. Auto production grew 3.9% after falling 1.8% in Jan. Gains in food and chemical production were partially offset by drops in wood, paper and nonmetallic mineral output.

Retail sales were mixed last week

The International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS said sales at chain retail stores edged up 0.3% in the week ended April 2 from the previous week. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 4.4%, just shy of the prior week's 4.5% gain.

** Redbook Research's index of chain store sales dropped 0.7% in the five weeks of March ...