Betting on Bush.(Campaign 2004)

ALL of a sudden, Republicans are worried about President Bush's chances in the upcoming election. There are several reasons for the gathering gloom. Republicans had hoped to be able to run against Howard Dean, and will not. The economic recovery has not yet produced many jobs. Bush has been losing conservative support because of his record on spending and his immigration proposals. Add to the mix a backward-looking State of the Union address, an unimpressive presidential performance during a television interview, a ham-handed White House response to the controversy about the president's National Guard service, and--above all--the polls showing John Kerry ahead of Bush, and you can see why Republicans are nervous.

As it happens, we think the worry is overdone. The Democrats have had the field largely to themselves for two months. Kerry has been winning primaries, and his first wins were dramatic surprises. It stands to reason that he would look strong now. Yet any objective assessment must conclude that he is electable chiefly in comparison with Howard Dean. He remains a northeastern social liberal with a weak record on national security. And even in a primary as late in the process as Wisconsin, a sizable number of Democrats is rejecting him for John Edwards. The economic indicators, meanwhile, are favorable to Bush. The public does not blame Bush for the jobs that have been lost "on his watch." It does want to see progress. By midyear it will, according to the forecasters. So the economy is likely to be a vote-winner for Bush. If so, it ...