Energy through 2030.

Energy plays a key role in economic prosperity, and lately it has commanded significant public attention. It's our business, and so we continually assess trends and issues that are likely to affect energy in the future. Key elements of our outlook are provided here.

Compared to 1970, economies today use substantially less energy per dollar of economic output. We expect an even faster future rate of improvement as more-efficient technologies are developed and used to help meet growing transportation and power generation needs and tightening environmental standards.

Economic growth of about 3 percent per year through 2030 will continue to drive energy demand. In concert with rising personal incomes, we expect energy demand to grow about 1.7 percent per year. By 2030, demand could be about 335 million barrels per day of oil equivalent, or about 50 percent more than today. The vast majority of this increase will be in developing nations, consistent with faster economic growth and substantial increases in personal vehicle use.

Fossil fuels meet more than 80 percent of the world's energy needs, and we expect this trend to continue through 2030. In the very long term, a more-diversified energy mix is likely with increasing opportunities for nuclear and bio-fuel energies. However, for the foreseeable future, fossil fuels are the only energy forms with the scale and versatility to meet the world's growing needs.

We believe innovative technologies, access to resources, substantial investments, continued energy conservation and responsible development efforts will help ensure reliable and affordable energy to meet future world needs.

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