A defeat in Spain.(At War)(Madrid train station bombings' political fallout)

THE Madrid bombings were a scene out of Goya--a brew of body parts, fear, and fanaticism. Days later they were followed by an event that, though quintessentially modern, is no less irrational, the election upset: The Popular party of outgoing premier Jose Maria Aznar lost to the Socialist Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

Aznar's position as prime minister was always anomalous. In eight years, he had brought Spain prosperity. But his decision to send 1,300 troops to Iraq had been opposed by 90 percent of Spaniards. He was brave and insightful to stand with the United States, but his party's tenure in office could continue only so long as everything went right.

Was Spain attacked because of its Iraq policy? That's what the terrorists said. In a videotape discovered after the blasts, a man identifying himself as an al-Qaeda functionary offered a blunt quid pro quo: "If you do not stop your collaboration, more and more blood will flow."

Yet terrorists, from Osama bin Laden down, have long identified Spain as a target. It is a stone in their sandals, a Christian country squatting in the former Moslem realm of al-Andalus. More generally, Spain, like all of Europe and the Americas, is filled with Jews, uncovered women, commerce, newspapers--all the things offensive to Islamists. If the Spaniards think that shuffling a government will get them off the hook, they must think again.

If al-Qaeda, like the Supreme Court, follows the election returns, it must feel encouraged. The loss of Afghanistan was a blow to their command structure; nothing approaching 9/11 has happened since. Yet branch offices have carried out major attacks in Bali and Madrid; the Madrid operation showed sophisticated coordination. Al-Qaeda may aim to pick off low-hanging fruit--potentially weak Western nations. Italy and the Netherlands both have troops in Iraq; Canada does not, but might be terrorized into outright ...