TAIWAN: The Cold Shoulder; Beijing is setting up legal cover for an attack on the island, and unnerving leaders in Taipei.

Byline: Jonathan Adams (With Jonathan Ansfield and Craig Simons in Beijing, Eve Conant in Washington, Tracy Mcnicoll in Paris and Kay Itoi in Tokyo)

The year of the rooster came in mild in Taipei, and the political climate seemed warmer, too. For the first time in 55 years Taiwan allowed Chinese airlines to land on its territory after a landmark agreement on two-way cross-strait charter flights for the holiday. Since Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's pro-independence party failed to win a legislative majority in December, he's had conciliatory words for both China and his domestic opposition.

But a cold snap may be coming soon. On March 5, China's top legislative body will begin meeting in Beijing, where it is expected to pass an "anti-secession" law aimed squarely at pro-independence Taiwanese. The contents of the law, approved in principle in late December by the legislature's Standing Committee, are shrouded in secrecy. The exact purpose is still unclear. But the very notion of such a law--which suggests possible retaliation by China should Taiwan pursue formal independence--has riled the self-ruled, democratic island.

Taipei fears that Taiwanese executives and others living in China will be targeted. Government officials and academics warn that the law could trigger yet another dangerous round of cross-strait tensions. That would be bad not just for Taiwan and China but for Japan, Europe and the United States--all of which are trying to improve ties with Beijing and accommodate China's rise as an economic powerhouse and regional military force. Beijing appears all too ready to exploit that global leverage. "It's a common theme in cross-strait relations and international relations in general: when one side is ready to talk, the other side drops a grenade in their lap," says Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan expert at Davidson College in North Carolina.

To defuse China's gambit, Taiwan has launched a lobbying blitz, sending high-level delegations in recent weeks to Japan, Europe and the United States. Taipei wants foreign capitals--Washington in particular--to strong-arm Beijing into nixing the law, or at least to keep the language vague enough to avoid any concrete obligations. Joseph Wu, the chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, who led the delegation to Washington, says the bill flies in the face of reality: the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have been politically separate for more than 55 years. Worse, Wu says, "China could use this law as a blank check in using force."

Opposition to the law cuts across Taiwan's polarized political spectrum. Even the Nationalist Party, which favors closer ties with China and dislikes Chen as much as, if not more than, Beijing does, has joined the chorus of protest. While opposition figures blame Chen and his aggressive endorsement of a separate Taiwanese identity for rising tensions, they fear that the anti-secession law could spark a dangerous chain reaction, such as an island-wide referendum that China could interpret as a declaration of independence.

For its part, Beijing sees the law, which would likely commit it to using "any means" including war to prevent a permanent break, as a deterrent. Ever since Chen's 2000 election, his every move seems to provoke more distrust; in late 2003, when he proposed a referendum on a new constitution that would take effect in 2008, Beijing read it as a "timetable for independence" and began mulling pre-emptive legal measures. When Chen was re-elected last ...