EUROPE: Cozying Up to Condi; A new era of good feeling for the United States and Europe? Don't count on it.(Condoleezza Rice)

Byline: Michael Meyer (With Stryker Mcguire and Carla Power In London, Richard Wolffe and Eve Conant in Washington, Stefan Theil in Berlin and Tracy Mcnicoll in Paris)

Everyone agrees. Condoleezza Rice came to Europe and made very nice noises. A gentler, wiser, more diplomatic Bush administration appears eager to repair the tattered transatlantic relationship. A new era of shared interests, from Iran to Middle East peace, offers opportunities for cooperation rather than unilateral confrontation. Grateful Europeans noted the U.S. president's calls to German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder and French President Jacques Chirac. "A few weeks ago, such telephone contact wasn't imaginable," gushed Le Monde, touting the "accelerated thaw."

Are Europe and America really entering a new era of good feeling? Dream on. Yes, Rice arrived in Europe buoyed by the success of the Iraq election, applauded even in the "Old Europe" capitals of Paris and Berlin. Yes, Europeans welcome her pragmatism and the ascent of approved "realists" to senior State Department posts. There was even heady talk of "transformational diplomacy"--what you get, one Rice aide explained, "when states act together to create new ideas and institutions." But can the mood last? "You can't rely on the [Iraq election] bounce forever," cautions a senior British diplomatic source. Iraq is, to put it mildly, a work in progress. Much can go wrong and probably will. Throw in fundamentally different views on Iran and the Israel-Palestinian problem, experts warn, and U.S.-European relations could again descend quickly into acrimony.

Begin with Iran. At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, U.S., European and Iranian policymakers discussed the contours of a deal that might resolve tensions over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. It centered on Iran's giving up its uranium-enrichment program in exchange for ample European trade and investment, WTO membership and a security guarantee from the United States, as well as linkage to a Middle East peace deal. The so-called EU-3--Germany, Britain and France--are negotiating with Iran along these lines. Yet the United States stands apart, despite the fact that any solution requires U.S. engagement. British Foreign Office officials insist this "good cop, bad cop" tactic is deliberate, but Washington's mixed messages mystify other Europeans. "Diplomacy can work," said Rice in London last week, even as she described Iran as a "chief funder of terrorism" and ruled out any direct dealings with the United States.

Europeans remain suspicious about what the United States might be up to. Inside the White House, especially the vice president's office, there has long been a thinly veiled hope that a new revolution will topple Iran's ayatollahs from power. "We don't know how close the regime is to collapsing," says one senior administration official. Worried Europeans believe that Washington must drop such fantasies if it's to get anywhere with Tehran. "If you wait for the ayatollahs to fall," says a top European diplomat, "you'll get both ayatollahs and the nuclear bomb."

Even America's staunchest ally, Britain, has concerns. Tony Blair's inner circle is unwilling to credit alarming reports that U.S. military planners have already identified targets for missile attacks within Iran in order to cripple its nascent nuclear capability. "We don't feel there's a military plan," says a senior source. But he also acknowledges that there's clearly a "debate" within the Bush administration over whether to take such action. Rice ruled that out last week, saying that attacking Iran was "not on the agenda at this point." But if diplomacy were to fail, what then? At the very least, there could be an ugly blame game over "who lost Iran," and whether America or Europe was responsible for either a new Middle East war or a cold peace with a nuclear Tehran.

Other issues are no less fraught. Last week the U.S. House of Representatives voted 411-3 on a resolution censuring the European Union's plan to lift its arms embargo on China. As members of Congress debated possible U.S. retaliation, Rice vowed to "work it out." But given U.S. military interests in Asia, and its delicate balancing act between ...