Push For Social Security Reform Has Stalled With Dems Opposed; Big Bush speech Wed. may help, backers say; time for a 'Hail Mary'?(A)

Byline: JED GRAHAM

President Bush has spent two months trying to soften the ground for the coming fight to reform Social Security, but on the eve of the State of the Union address, the political terrain looks no more fertile.

Analysts agree that initial White House efforts to build a case for reform have made little headway, though most say it's way too early to bet against the president. Still, some think the administration may need a bold stroke to shake up a debate that is so far at a standoff.

"There's no doubt the last month or so the opponents have been up to bat," said Michael Tanner, director of the Cato Institute's Project on Social Security Choice. "They've been out front and they've had an impact on public opinion."

Bush Speech Key

But with tonight's prime time speech, "it's the bottom of the first," and Bush is coming to bat, Tanner said. He says he's "still pretty confident" that a Social Security reform deal incorporating private investment accounts will pass.

Ed Lorenzen, executive director of Centrists.org, agreed the push for reform got off to "a bit of a rough start," but that the effort will begin in earnest with the State of the Union.