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A Tough Forecast: Tech Spending Growth; It Depends What You Look At; Tech recovery began with spending by small, medium businesses, not large firms.(INTERNET & TECHNOLOGY)
Byline: BRIAN DEAGON
Analysis of data is all in the eye of the beholder. And when it comes to business spending on technology, the latest report from the Commerce Department suggests the glass is half full and half empty.
Research firm Precursor says the data, released Wednesday, are "further evidence of our view that overall tech growth will likely slow in the second half to more normal levels."
Research firm ThinkEquity, after reviewing the same data, said "fourth-quarter investment looks set to meaningfully accelerate."
Analysts have had a hard time predicting growth in the tech sector since the end of the Internet bubble. The Commerce report is the best barometer of where things stand because it's the most thorough monthly tally of business activity.
Many analysts failed to see the tech recovery that arrived in early 2003 until Commerce Department figures confirmed it. That's because the recovery began with spending by small and midsize businesses, which analysts historically have not watched as closely as they have big business spending.
The Commerce numbers have shown that the recovery remained strong through the first half this year. As to where things might be headed, it depends on how the data are scrutinized.
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