Mathematical model supports U.K. screening interval recommendations.

2004 OCT 7 - (NewsRx.com & NewsRx.net) -- A mathematical model of cervical human papillomavirus infection and cancer in the U.K. supports recently revised cervical cancer screening interval recommendations.

According to a paper published in the British Journal of Cancer, "In 2003, the National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme (NHSCSP) announced that its screening interval would be reduced to 3 years in women aged 25-49 and fixed at 5 years in those aged 50-64, and that women under 25 years will no longer be invited for screening.

"In order to assess these and possible further changes to cervical screening practice in the U.K., we constructed a mathematical model of cervical human papillomavirus infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and invasive cervical cancer, and of U.K. age-specific screening coverage rates, screening intervals, and treatment efficacy," reported K. Canfell and colleagues, Oxford University.

"The predicted cumulative lifetime incidence of invasive cervical cancer in the U.K. is 1.70% in the absence of screening and 0.77% with pre-2003 screening practice. A reduction in lifetime incidence to 0.63% is predicted following the implementation of the 2003 NHSCSP recommendations, which represents a 63% reduction compared to incidence rates in the U.K. population if it were unscreened," the epidemiologists said.

"The model suggests that, after the implementation of the 2003 recommendations, ...